I see examples of people jumping to conclusions all the time. Instead of taking the time to analyze a problem, they suggest their favorite corrective action.

Why do they do this? I think it is because thinking is so hard. As Henry Ford said:

“Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it.”

Did you know that when you think hard, your brain burns more calories? After a day of hard thinking you may feel physically exhausted.

Neuroscientific research at Cal Tech has shown that the more uncertainty there is in a problem (a cause and effect relationship), the more likely a person is to use “one-shot” learning (jumping to conclusions). This simplification saves us lots of work.

What’s the problem with jumping to conclusions?


And even more important than saving effort in the analysis is that if you jump to a conclusion, you get to recommend the corrective action that you wanted to implement all along. Skip all that hard work of proving what the cause was and the details of developing effective fixes. Just do what you wanted to do before the problem ever happened!

The next time you are tempted to jump to a conclusion … THINK!

Yes, real root cause analysis and developing effective fixes is harder than just implementing the fix that you have been wanting to try even before the accident, but getting to the root (or roots) of the problem and really improving performance is worth the hard work of thinking.